UFC 246
Surprise, surprise... the king is back! The UFC is set to kick off their first pay-per-view event of 2020 at the T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on January 18th. This is a great card, with the main event featuring the return of Conor McGregor facing off against Donald Cerrone in the welterweight division. This is an intriguing matchup between two fan favorites. McGregor has been out of the octagon for quite some time (last fighting in October 2018) but a win against Cowboy puts Conor right back into title contention.
Conor McGregor (21-4-0) vs Donald Cerrone (36-13-0)
McGregor is stepping back into the octagon for the first time since his submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in early October 2018. In his fight against Khabib, Conor was challenging for the lightweight title. Early in the fight, Conor was worn down by Khabib’s aggressive grappling style, ultimately losing the first two rounds. McGregor did show a lot of promise in the fight, particularly in the third round, but was eventually worn down by Khabibs relentless take downs and pressure, resulting in a submission in the fourth round by way of rear naked choke. An interesting thing to note from that fight was Khabib’s success on his feet. Early in the second round, Khabib dropped Conor with an overhand right; this punch was open a couple times throughout the fight because Conor was forced to have his hands low to defend the inevitable takedown attempts. By no means is Cerrone on the same level as Khabib from a grappling standpoint, but Cowboy has the grappling advantage in this matchup against McGregor. It is hard to compare the threat of Khabib’s grappling to Cowboy’s grappling skills and the threat they pose to McGregor, but it is definitely something to look for when both fighters are on their feet.
Conor’s last win inside the octagon was versus Eddie Alvarez for the lightweight title on November 12, 2016. This was a dominant performance where Conor TKO’d Alvarez early in the second round, earning him the moniker Champ Champ. When looking back at this fight, I think the outcome will be very similar to what we will see when Conor squares off against Cowboy.
Cerrone will be making his 51st walk inside the cage against McGregor on January 18th. Cowboy is the definition of a fighter, accepting matchups against anyone at anytime. Since 2007 when Cerrone entered the WEC, Cowboy has fought the best the sport has had to offer and created quite an impressive record while doing so. Cerrone holds numerous records in the UFC and seems to get a fight of the night award in most of his bouts.
Cowboy will be looking to get back into the win column after being defeated via TKO in his last two fights. Cerrone will have his best chance defeating Conor if he utilizes his grappling advantage early in the fight. The question is - will he attempt to grapple or will he stand and bang? Cowboy has 17 victories by way of submission and 10 wins by way of knockout/technical knockout. It is worth noting that all four of Conor’s loses have been by submission.
Prediction: Conor McGregor wins via KO/TKO early. Conor is absolutely one of the best fighters on his feet, especially the best at counter punches. Cowboy will try to utilize the constant forward pressure as he does most fights but Conor will start to pick him apart with counterstrikes. Conor will stop Cerrone early, get the win, and again become the hottest draw in the UFC.
Holly Holm (12-5) vs Raquel Pennington (10-7)
In the Co-main event of UFC 246, Holly Holm and Raquel Pennington face off for the second time in their careers. The first fight took place in February of 2015, where Holly Holm defeated Raquel Pennington via split decision.
Holly Holm returns to the cage following a TKO loss when she fought Amanda Nunes for the women's bantamweight belt on July 6th, 2019. In her last seven fights in the octagon, Holly has compiled a record of 2 wins and 5 losses. This record does not accurately portray the skills of Holly but shows that Holly has fought the best females in the UFC, as those five losses were to Nunes, Cyborg, de Randamie, Schevchenko, and Tate. Holly Holm is absolutely a top tier female fighter and a win against Raquel puts her back into title contention.
Raquel Pennington is coming off of a split decision win over Irene Aldana. Before her win over Alanda, Pennington was defeated by de Randamie and Nunes in back to back fights. Pennington has compiled a 7-4 record in her UFC career, with her most notable win coming from Miesha Tate.
Prediction: Both Holm and Pennington are true vets in the UFC. To me, this seems like a must win fight for Holly Holm due to her past couple of performances. I think Holly is the all around better fighter with a huge advantage on the feet. This will be the biggest factor in the fight and will ultimately result in Holly Holm getting the victory over Raquel Pennington.
Alexey Oleynik (57-13-1) vs Maurice Greene (8-3-0)
At 42 years old, Oleynik has an impressive record of 57-13-1. The most impressive part of Oleynik’s record comes from the 45 submission victories he has compiled. Alexey is coming off of a two fight losing streak where he was knocked out in the first round in both losses. Alexey is now 6-4 since entering the UFC octagon and is currently ranked #12 in the heavyweight division.
Maurice Greene has a great opportunity to knock off a ranked opponent and put his name in contention for becoming a top 15 ranked heavyweight. Green entered the UFC after competing on the Ultimate Fighter: Season 28 and has since compiled a record of 3-1. Greene will be returning to the octagon versus Oleynik after experiencing his first loss in the UFC.
Prediction: The thing that stands out the most in this matchup is the huge variance in experience between Oleynik and Greene. Oleynik has over 70 professional mma fights while Greene has 11 fights. This will be the deciding factor, as veteran experience will allow Oleynik to secure his 58th career victory.
Claudia Gadelha (17-4) vs Alexa Grasso (11-3)
Alexa Grasso (ranked #11) has a great opportunity to shake up the women’s strawweight division as she takes on Claudia Gadelha (ranked #6). Grasso is 3-3 in the UFC, with all three of her victories coming by way of decision. After her victory over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Grasso was defeated by Carla Esparza in her latest bout.
Claudia Gadelha (6-4 in the UFC) is coming off a decision victory over Randa Markos. With a win over Alexa, Claudia is looking to improve her ranking in the women’s strawweight division and get back on the path to challenge for the strawweight title.
Prediction: Claudia Gadelha has a more impressive record and resume. Claudia will prove why she is ranked higher than Grasso and will get the W.
Anthony Pettis (22-9) vs Diego Ferreira (16-2)
When the former UFC lightweight champion of the world, #11 ranked Anthony Pettis, is fighting - expect an exciting fight. Pettis has certainly lived up to the nickname “Showtime,” often securing performance or fight of the night bonuses. Expect nothing less in this matchup as Pettis looks to establish a winning streak after coming off of a decision loss to Nate Diaz. Since 2016, Pettis has not won two fights in a row; the major reason for this being of course the talent that he has been facing.
Ferreira is currently riding a 5 fight win streak. Ferreira has been very impressive since joining the UFC compiling a 7-2 record with his two losses coming from Dustin Poirier and Beneil Dariush. Ferreira has surprisingly stayed under the radar for the past 5 years and is looking to make some noise in the lightweight division with a win over Anthony Pettis.
Prediction: The former champ Pettis gets the W and moves up in the lightweight division standings.